TRUMP vs Biden – this is the choice Americans will face at the start of November.
It’s an unfortunate range of options for many, but like in 2016, most voters will have to hold their nose and make a choice while at the ballots.
Biden has been demolishing the incumbent by almost double digits in recent polls as it looks like the ‘Stop Trump’ operation is finally bearing fruit.
Using expert analysis and sources on the ground, we will look at the key battlegrounds below which will decide the 2020 US Presidential Election between now and November.
Arizona
The Republicans have held Arizona for some time now, with 1996 being the last time the state voted blue in a Presidential Election. But this looks set to change in the very immediate future. Not only has Biden been (modestly) leading in several polls, but the midterm elections offered a foreshadow when Democrat Kyrsten Sinema took one of the state’s Senate seats from the Republicans. It will likely be close, but Redaction is betting on a flip for now.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Colorado
While usually considered a swing state, the Democrats have had a fairly easy ride in Colorado as of late. It voted for Obama both times, for Clinton in 2016 and has a Democrat governor. The Democrats control the state legislature, one of its Senate seats and more than half of its seats in the House. Add Biden’s comfortable polling lead, and this looks like a safe blue state this time round.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Florida
Due to its high electoral college count, Florida is one of the most critical swing states. Largely seen as a tossup going in to 2016, Trump edged it out in the end. While Biden currently holds a slim polling lead here, the Republicans have a strong advantage in the Sunshine State, controlling both Senate seats and the governorship. Florida is also now Trump’s home state by way of Mar a Lago. Redaction reckons it’s too close to call at this point, but we’re going to give it to Trump.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Georgia
Right in the heart of the Deep South, Georgia should in theory be an obvious Republican hold. But some stunning polling is coming out of the state, suggesting it could be in for a close race. If Biden is on course for a landslide, Georgia could be an upset greater than the Rust Belt Blue Wall flipping to Trump – especially if there is high turnout among the African-American population. But, for now, we’re tempering our expectations.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Indiana
Usually a Republican safe state, Indiana broke from character to vote for Obama in 2008. If public opinion of Trump turns even more sour, a similar upset is not impossible. But Trump currently enjoys a strong polling lead in the state – even at a time when his national polls are poor.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Iowa
After voting for Obama twice, Iowa opted for Trump in 2016 – even after he mocked the intelligence of its residents during the Republican primaries. Redaction anticipates that this will be one of the closest races of 2020 – a theory backed up by a tight race in the opinion polls. At the moment, we reckon the smart money is on Trump. Like in Indiana, if he can keep a relatively strong polling performance on a state level when his national ratings are poor, it suggests he still has a strong base of support here. It’s also worth considering how badly Biden bombed in the Iowa Democratic Primary.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Despite being solid blue on a statewide level, Maine’s congressional district split saw Trump take home one of their electoral college points. This was an aberration from the norm – it was the first time Maine had split since 1828. Considering this – and Biden’s polling lead – we’re betting the centre of gravity will return here.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Michigan
Michigan was one of the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ states that oblivious pundits failed to predict would swerve into Trump’s lane. His 2016 victory may well have made these states competitive for years to come. But it is worth remembering that Trump’s win here was by a painfully slim margin, and his nationwide unpopularity will likely kick enough votes back towards the Democrats.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Minnesota
The killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis is one of the year’s most significant events, sparking Black Lives Matter protests across the world. It has the potential to go down as a major watershed moment – and maybe one that could hold considerable sway in this election. Minnesota was one of the few midwestern states to vote for Clinton in 2016. Both of its senators are Democrats. Biden leads in the state’s polls. We see no reason why it won’t stay blue this time round as well.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Like Maine, Nebraska gives both candidates to opportunity to pick up electoral college votes via congressional district divisions. While overall it is a Republican safe state, Obama picked up a single point in 2008 by carrying the 2nd district. The district typically yields close elections in the House as well. This is another race Redaction thinks will come down to a knife’s edge. Considering how red the whole of Nebraska is, we’re going to play it safe and assume Trump will hold it.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Nevada
Despite only offering six electoral points, Nevada remains a key swing state – one that could easily break the ‘tie’ in a close match. Clinton took it home in 2016, but it was far from a runaway win. Accordingly, Biden leads in the state’s polls at the moment, but not overwhelmingly by any means. It looks like Nevada will be one of the closer contests this time round too. And Redaction calls it that the Democrats will just hold it again.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
New Hampshire
Despite sitting in the blue heartlands of New England, New Hampshire is very much a swing state. Although sticking with the Democrats in the end, the Granite State nearly opted for Trump in what was one of 2016’s closest fought contests – fewer than 3,000 votes separated the two candidates. Biden leads in the polls here at the moment, but if we had to pick one 2016 Democrat state that might flip red, it would be New Hampshire. That being said, a polling lead is a polling lead, and the state has tended blue in recent years.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
New Mexico
Once a bellwether state that tended to swing in the overall winner’s direction, New Mexico is more or less a safe blue state at this point. Clinton took it comfortably in 2016, and all of its Members of Congress are Democrats. It would not be contentious to say the Democrats probably have New Mexico sewn up.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
North Carolina
This is another state that stepped out of typecast to vote for Obama in 2008. While it went back to the red column for 2012 and 2016, tight polling suggests it could be up for grabs this time round. And assuming Biden keeps up his strong showing on a nationwide level, we’re calling it that he’ll narrowly take home the prize here.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Ohio
Ohio is usually considered to be the critical swing state. It offers a sizeable 18 electoral college points, and that last time it didn’t go with the winning candidate was 1960. Trump took it home last time as part of his storming of the Rust Belt. The polls for 2020 are well within the margin of error. And this is where we’ll make a contentious prediction – even though our current count says Biden will win the presidency, we’re saying Ohio will end its winning streak and stick with Trump.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Pennsylvania
Yet another one of the Rust Belt states that defected from the Democrats in 2016, Pennsylvania seems to be the one most likely to make a U-turn back to the blue camp. Biden has a solid lead in the current polling. Before 2016, it had voted Democrat since 1992. Trump has an outside chance of keeping hold of it, but we’re not taking that bet.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Texas
It would be the biggest talking point of the 2020 election if Texas flipped blue. To lend some perspective of how significant this would be, Texas is the only one of the four largest states in electoral college points that is squarely in the red camp at the moment. Given how close Beto O’Rourke came to defeating Ted Cruz in 2018, an eventual flip blue is likely in the near future. Much like Georgia, the polls are surprisingly close for such a loyal red state. But, as with Georgia, we don’t reckon the flip will happen just yet.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Trump
Virginia
Virginia is a possible model for where Georgia and Texas could head down the line – before 2008, it very consistently voted Republican. Just three elections later and it’s well on course to becoming a safe blue state. Biden’s polling lead is accordingly strong. This should be an easy win for the Democrats.
2016 Winner: Clinton
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
Wisconsin
Another brick off that once solid Blue Wall, Wisconsin joins Michigan and Pennsylvania as a competitive state. It was another narrow win for Trump in 2016, but right now it looks likely to flip back to the Democrats. Biden holds a strong lead in the state’s polls, and if Michigan and Pennsylvania are re-turning blue, there is little reason why Wisconsin should not follow suit.
2016 Winner: Trump
Predicted 2020 Winner: Biden
By our predictions, Biden would win the election with 305 electoral college points to Trump’s 233.
This would make Trump the first US President since George H.W. Bush to lose re-election – and the first since Jimmy Carter in an election without a significant third party challenger.
Redaction will update our predictions on a regular basis between now and November.
Polling Data: 270 to Win, FiveThirtyEight, RealClear Politics
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