DONALD Trump is hurtling towards the end of his tumultous time in office, if polls are to be trusted.
But after the 2016 fiasco – in which pollsters all but guaranteed the White House would be Hillary Clinton’s – one should be wary about giving Joe Biden the same treatment.
With coronavirus, shy Republicans and lines stretching miles to vote, anything can happen between now and November 3.
Some at Redaction think the polls have overestimated Joe Biden’s support, despite his relatively strong and gaffe-free campaign thus far.
Yesterday reporter Richard Hansen went state-by-state and came out with Biden trumping the Donald.
But here’s one editor’s analysis of which states will swing red or blue – ultimately tying the electoral college at 269 a piece.
The New York Times have suggested that Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan and Pennsylvania will swing Democrat next week.
The majority of these will prove to be correct – analysts have suggested voters of colour are turning out more for Joe than Hillary this election, especially in light of the Black Lives Matter movement, which started in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
But the latter two don’t sit right. Michigan and Pennsylvania went to Trump in 2016, and it would be no shock if they stay red.
Clinton led by 4 points in both those states heading into election day. Biden’s lead is even narrower.
Trump held three rallies in PA on Monday. Internal polling either suggests he’s lagging awfully far behind, or that the Republicans sense victory in the state.
Biden is slightly further ahead in Michigan – but by sending Mike Pence, Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Ivanka there, it appears his base is energised. Trump has continued to draw large crowds in Michigan; high voter turnout from red regions is the key to another victory.
So Michigan and Pennsylvania, in summary, will go to Trump.
Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Nebraska will go to Biden.
Let’s face it – Texas isn’t going blue. The Beto O’Rourke hype was just embarassing.
Sources on the ground have indicated increased turnout in more liberal, diverse cities – but it won’t be enough.
Texas is going to Trump.
Everyone’s favourite buzzword in election season, it’s the only place where one’s vote actually matters.
Florida is usually considered the bellweather state – and it’s also technically Trump’s ‘home’ state.
His base, especially in Pensacola, is fired up – and ready to vote their man back in.
Georgia is another that will stay red – it’s unlikely liberal voters in Atlanta will be able to balance out the entrenched conservatism. The same goes in Iowa.
Ohio has shifted rightwards in the past few elections, so much so that it can be considered a ‘pink’ state. Again, rural conservatives should outweigh those in Cincinnati and Cleveland.
But Biden should take North Carolina. He is performing much better than Clinton with both moderate voters and college graduates, which should secure him the electoral votes to take him to….269.
If this happens, the White House will be decided by a one-vote per state system. The Republicans have a 26-23 advantage. Say hello to re-election.
Four more years of Trump isn’t out of the question, as much as Redaction detests the thought.
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