ANDRES Arauz’s surprising loss in the Ecuadorian Presidential election was down to anti-Rafael Correa feeling within the electorate, an expert has said.
Former banker Guillermo Lasso was finally declared the victor on Sunday with 52.36 percent of the vote in the second round – but few expected him to even come close after Arauz dominated initial proceedings.
Arauz comfortably qualified for the second round of proceedings with 32.7 percent of the vote in a 16-strong candidate field. Lasso, by comparison, achieved less than a fifth.
With leftists winning across the continent in the past two years, the notion that Latin America were experiencing a resurgent Pink Tide after a conservative counter-wave last decade grew stronger.
But the tide has now been delayed by four years, according to Professor Silvia Mariela Méndez Prado of ESPOL in Ecuador. She blamed former President Lenin Moreno, who succeeded the socialist government of Correa, as the underlying reason for Arauz’s defeat.
She told Redaction Politics: “The Ecuadorian case is different from than Argentinian elections.
“Moreno arrived as a socialist, but he worked with conservatives; then, he was like a fake socialist, and now the Pink Tide is delayed. “
There was a “numerical and Idiosincracy reason” to why Arauz couldn’t carry on his success from the first round.
Professor Prado said: “The framework framework with 16 candidates for the first round is one reason, as is the rejection to still having another Correist president.
“This is despite Moreno confronting the socialism bases who impulsed him.
“Arauz maintained the 30 percent of Correa votes during both waves and reached the second round despite the defragmentation.
“The second reason won out, however: Anti-Correism.”
Last year Correa, who handpicked Arauz to lead the return of the socialist movement, was arrested on corruption charges.
According to El Pais, “the results confirm the victory of the anti-Correa movement over pro-Correa supporters, a dispute that defined the election campaign from day one.”
Lasso won’t necessarily have an easy ride, however. His ‘Creating Opportunities’ party, which bases itself on classic liberalism, will have to contend with the economic crisis exacerbated by the pandemic.
“The problem with Ecuadorian conservatives is that they have no social conscience,” Professor Prado said.
“Ecuador defends the dollarization as a stability indicator and has an actual economic mess with the pandemic, over-debt, unemployment.
There may now be a “preference for financial stability instead of social program development” that appears a tenet of Bolivarianism.
She added: “During the last four decades, the Ecuadorian government’s experience has only been about assistance or privatization.
“The innovative government plan of Arauz doesn’t have credibility for its novelty.
“Lasso represents “change” and “experience” – balancing finance as an expert within his business.
“Despite his unique profile, Arauz is related to the socialist school, terribly represented with the Venezuelan reality. It was the Achilles heel for Arauz.”
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